Australia’s First National Climate Risk Assessment: What’s at Stake
For the first time, Australia has taken a nation-wide look at climate risk and the results are sobering. The National Climate Risk Assessment (NCRA) maps out how climate change could affect every corner of our society, from health and housing to the economy, agriculture and even national security.
The assessment identifies 56 nationally significant risks, with 11 receiving a deeper dive in a second phase of analysis. What emerges is a picture of a country facing compounding challenges if we fail to act.
A few key findings stand out:
Vulnerable regions: outer suburbs, Northern Australia, remote communities and coastal zones are most exposed.
Health impacts: if global warming reaches 3°C, Sydney could face a ~444% increase in heat-related mortality compared to today.
Economic toll: by mid-century, extreme weather and disasters could cost around A$40 billion every year, with property values at risk of hundreds of billions in losses.
Cascading risks: stress in one system, like health or energy, can ripple across others, magnifying the damage unless risks are managed proactively.
What’s next?
The NCRA arrives at a crucial moment. Australia is preparing to announce its 2035 emissions reduction target (cough, previous article) and this report underscores the urgency of ambition. Equally important will be the National Adaptation Plan that follows, shaping how investment, infrastructure, insurance and regulation prepare us for the decades ahead.
Climate risk is an environmental, health, financial and security issue. And while the numbers are confronting, they also make one thing clear. That planning and acting now can prevent far greater losses later.
